An analysis after 18 league games…

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How are we doing?…

A short question…but possibly a long answer based on your outlook and our final position last season following our “great escape”…but let’s look at some of the current arguments…

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Argument no.1 – “We are doing far better than this point last season”
Unarguable to be honest! We have 19 points from 18 games…7 points more than at this point last season.

However…if we end up repeating the form we have witnessed over the first 18 games until the end of the season we are expected to hit 48.6pts (let’s call it 48-49 for the sake of argument).

Last season…we gained 48pts…and stayed out of the relegation zone on goal difference. It’s too early to tell what the survival mark will be this season but it’s likely to be similar.

Another interesting stat is how Wilkinson did since he took over last season(amber line in graph 1 below). You can see that in his first 18 games last season he picked up 19 points…EXACTLY the same as his start to this campaign.

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Argument no.2 – “We are heading in the wrong direction”
Not easy to tell by glancing at the league table. If we look back to two months and nine games ago we were 18th in the table…today on 20th November we actually sit one place higher in 17th place. However, scratch beneath the surface and a slight slide is possibly apparent as three of the four teams directly below us have games in hand.
The picture also looks even worse if you look at the 15-game-form table(below) which puts us in the relegation zone on goal difference as it removes 4pts from our first three games of the season…shows how tight the margins are at the moment.

In fact over the last nine games our expected final points tally has slipped slightly from 51pts to 49pts(see graph 2 below) – the first time we are predicted less than 50pts based on league games to date since matchday 8. Additionally in the “points per match” table we are currently 19th.

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Argument no.3 – “We can’t finish off teams”
We certainly seem to start games better this season than we finish them and that has changed from our games under Wilkinson in the last campaign.

If we look at graph 3 below we can see that if all games this season were stopped after 25mins we’d be 10pts better off than we are now, sitting pretty on 29pts. But even by half time that figure has dropped to 23pts before slowly sinking to our actual 19pts by the final whistle.

Conversely last season we built on those good starts longer into the game with a high of 52pts for Wilkinson at 65mins before dropping back slightly to 46pts in the final knockings. (Games under Wilkinson gathered 46 of our total 48pts all season)

Looking at the same data another way below in graph 4 we can see that our starts have actually on average been better than last season. If every game starts with a “point” at 0-0 as the game kicks off, we are 11pts better off one quarter into the game this season compared to 2022/23. However this season we can clearly see how we quickly lose a foothold in games we often never regain.

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CONCLUSION:
As things stand, how we remember November will depend on how many points we gain in the remaining two games – at home to fellow strugglers Truro and the surprise package of the season so far…high-flying promoted side Aveley.

An average of 1.06pts per game…One win in nine…nine points from nine…all these stats put us squarely on course to be flirting with the relegation trap door again…but history is repeating itself so far with an identical first 18 games to HIS season…so can Wilkinson also repeat the feat of a late uptick to climb the table? Or can we start the fireworks even earlier this season?!