INTRODUCTION
I know @footballcliches will not be happy about about the title of this post but I’m afraid with 20 games to go I’m still going to say this is a “run-in” analysis!

So…straight to the point…how are we doing this season…?…20th and just the 5 points above the relegation zone!

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STARING INTO THE CRYSTAL “FOOT”BALL…

Where will we finish?… Let’s wet our finger and stick it in the air shall we! To answer that question let’s first estimate how many points we will get from our last 20 games…and we can do that in a number of ways…

1. Non-league ranking.com…They use an ELO type system to determine Win/draw/loss % chance for each game and based on their findings they currently believe we will scrape 50 points.

2. Points per game to date…The crudest measure but who knows – if we continue to average the same number of points we have all season we will end up on 51 points (grey line in chart below)

3. 10-game form…Based on the fact we have gained 11 points in our last 10 games we could finish on…again 51 points!

4. Wilkinson’s 20-game record…Looking at every 20 game league run under Wilkinson since last season (1-20, 2-21etc) the average churns out at 24 points for a slightly more optimistic final tally of 53.

(Incidentally, looking at all of Wilkinson’s 20-game runs, his spread is 17-30points so adding this to the 29 points we already have…he will have done something he has not achieved before if we end up outside the range 46-59points).

If we want to match the earlier predictions and hit 50 points overall, we need to gain 21 points from our last 20 games. Pleasingly we can see below that Wilkinson has achieved at least 21 points on 42/45 occasions to date (93%). If we want 22 points for 51 overall then he has hit that bar 37/45 runs (82%).
Therefore, based on his record, a Bobby Wilkinson team is very likely to be able to gain 50/51 points by the end of the season from this point in time.

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TREND ANALYSIS
Therefore the consensus seems to be 50-51 points for Weymouth but what trends could affect our total?

Trend 1: Fast start…fast finish…From games 1-11 this campaign we were generally brilliant at starting games, only to fade in the second half. However, from games 12-20 we have completely flipped! In fact we have conceded first in 7 of our last 8. This is a worrying canary in the mineshaft indicator. We cannot continue to give opponents a head start if we want to get enough points to climb the table.

Our scores at different points in the game this season…

Unsurprisingly this means the average time of our first goal has been getting later(blue lines going up in the next two graphs) and our opponents are scoring their opener earlier(yellow lines going going down) to the point now where the times have almost converged. (See below)

In fact our rivals have now overtaken us again in terms of time of second goal scored…

Trend 2: Super-subs not so super!…Only twice this season have subs managed to score – Stagg v Hemel on matchday 4 and Touray v Weston in game 25. Similarly only one assist has been provided by a man off the bench (Bolton v Tonbridge in game 12). This hints that when we need a plan B to turn games around it rarely works…in an attacking sense at least.

Trend 3: Dirty Sheets…We have conceded in 23/26(88%) of league games this season so have only kept clean sheets three times (Games 2, 11 & 19 v Dartford, Slough & Truro respectively).
Despite a similar league position last season we had garnered 4 clean sheets already by this point and finished on 10. Will the inability to keep the opposition out cost us?

Trend 4: “We’ll score in a minute”…At least we are doing better at the other end of the pitch. We have failed to score in just 5 league games. This compares to 9 after 26 games in 2022/23 when we ended up on 14. Perhaps crucially we are currently on a run of 12 consecutive league games rustling the onion bag, the first time we have achieved that feat since Mark Molesley days almost 5 years ago!

Trend 5: Steady Eddie…We keep ticking over points! The extraordinary number of recent draws (11 in the last 17 games or 65%!) means we have consistently picked up between 9 and 12 points in 10 games over that period…an optimistic person would say we can chug over the line with that…50/51 points will keep us up as we only needed 48 last season right???

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OTHER TEAMS “IN THE MIX”
Maybe it’s time to see what points we think teams around us will get!
As things stand the bottom of the table looks like thus…

Position/Team/P/W/D/L/GF:GA/GD/Pts

How possible is it for any of the bottom six to haul themselves out of trouble now?

Well it happened last season! With 20 games to go Chippenham were 22nd in the table but went on to farm 37 points at a rate of 1.85 a game including a 15-game unbeaten run! If they had kept up that ratio the whole season they would have finished 2nd in the table! They ended their campaign with a 1-0 win over Dulwich Hamlet that helped to send them down and keep Weymouth up.

Chippenham were unusual though – the other bottom 10 teams (at the point when Weymouth had 20 games to go) amassed 17-29 points in their final 20 games. Dover & Dulwich we’re those on 17, up to 29 for Hampton & Richmond. (Weymouth gained 27 and the average was 23.8).

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RESULTS!…Based on what information we have I am going to stick my neck out and say how many points each team in danger will get in their remaining games…in the order of their current positions from bottom up –

24th DOVER – 17pts from final 20 at 0.85PPG(To finish on 34) – New manager Jake Lerberl appeared to be enjoying a “new manager bounce” as the team initially enjoyed a DDW record under his stewardship from 5th December. However since then they have since been brought back down to earth with two defeats and they sit second-to-last in the 10-game form table.

Chairman Jim Parameter certainly does not have a bottomless pit of money. Obviously one way to try to change playing personnel to climb the table is using the loan market but statements suggest they would rather not go down that road and maybe try to pick up cheaper gems who may have a longer-term impact such as former academy player Freddie Oliver from Kent local team Ramsgate.

23rd HAVANT & WATERLOOVILLE- 30pts at 1.5PPG(Finish on 46) – This is a nightmare situation for the Hawks and one they would have not have foreseen only a year or so back. Before the pandemic they had a multi-millionaire owner in place, a state of the art artificial pitch being installed and huge projected revenues from the use of the surface and new facilities. As covid hit in March 2020 they finished 2nd in the National league south and, like Weymouth and others, they nervously awaited a decision on the playoffs that were finally played at the end of July. Despite home advantage they lost to Dartford in the semi-final and they would not be able to complete a league season for two years and unable to cash in financially on their 4G pitch due to covid restrictions.
They finished a disappointing 8th in 2022 but worse was to follow just last season with a 10th place by the final reckoning. The slide has continued in this campaign and they are already on their third managerial choice of the season, an interim solution following the disastrous appointment of experience Steve King who lasted less than 3 months in the role. However, suddenly the caretakers appear to be getting the most out of a squad with talent and they are 6th in the 6-game-form-table! Although I can’t see them maintaining 4 wins from 6 for the rest of the season…3/6 is certainly likely…

22nd WELLING – 22pts at 1.1PPG(Finish on 43) – All is not right at Welling. Danny Bloor was seen as a great managerial appointment when brought in from Eastbourne Borough in the summer but he has not been able to turn around the fortunes of a club that only escaped relegation in 2021/22 due to the covid pandemic. A lowly 16th place finish was achieved last season but that now looks like a dream scenario. Fans are split between backing or criticising Bloor. Some say he is doing what he can on a shoestring budget, others claiming that selection and formation choices are to blame. Most seem to agree that the change of ownership simply means the club cannot afford to assemble a squad good enough to stay at this level and I therefore cannot see them picking up more than a modicum of form.

21st EASTBOURNE – 35pts at 1.85PPG(Finish on 59) There has of course also been a change of ownership at Eastbourne but their fans would hope it will eventually be for the better to pull them out of the relegation mire. After all, in June the new owners boldly stated they would make Eastbourne “a global brand” and, of course, had a plan to get “to the football league within five years”. They are now a full-time outfit, they now have a new manager with bags of experience and everything off the pitch is in place for success on it. I foresee a “Chippenham 2022/23” and for the Sports so soar up the table on a wave of £50 notes!

20th WEYMOUTH – 21pts at 1.05PPG(Finish on 50) No point in wasting more words than needed here as we have already analysed our own fate to death. Based on our “steady Eddie” guess let’s go for the half century of points and no change to our current league position!

19th TAUNTON – 18pts at 0.80PPG(Finish on 47) “Crisis club”…”Freefall”…Terms often banded about too freely in football but currently those emotive terms are perhaps not far off the mark. They have worked wonders as a club to reach this level and stay there into this season but it appears the money is running out at Wadsworth Road and the “we are in this together” spirit that probably helped them stay up last season has come crashing down spectacularly in recent weeks. Rumours abounded in December that all was not well and then, following more poorly explained player departures, the chairman released a statement hoping to steady the ship. In the face of costly festive home postponements (in part due to their infamous poor-draining pitch) it clearly didn’t wash with the players. Loyal Lloyd Irish (goalkeeper and coach for 15 years at the club on and off) released his own statement on behalf of the playing squad, in the “classic style”…cut and paste from “Notes” on his phone without cropping the time or battery level…

Perhaps Taunton can now stabilise and get through to the end of the season without any more departures but my gut says they are now in for a struggle with a thinner, less experienced squad and a fixture backlog.

18th WESTON-SUPER_MARE – 25pts at 1.2PPG(Finish on 57) The seagulls flirted with promotion to the Conference South in 2021/22 before finishing the job in style last season and they seem to have just enough about them to stay at this level. I expect them to maintain the sort of form that has kept their heads above water to date – albeit they will probably continue their boom/bust/boom form until the end of April to keep things interesting!

17th CHIPPENHAM – 25pts at 1.25PPG(Finish on 58) In stark contrast to their changing fortunes last season I am expecting them to maintain their current form exactly! This will ensure they finish well out of trouble…

16th and above….Are they all safe?…
DARTFORD in 16th are on paper most at risk of being drawn in but even if they have a very poor last 20 games, just a 1 point average would see them go from 34-54 points and surely safe. Their current form suggests they might not do much better than than so I going to say they will average 1.25PPG from here on in to finish on 58. Relief but massively underachieving for a club used to battling in the playoffs each year and last season they were runners-up! Clearly the Dartford board have had enough and on January 11th relieved manager Alan Dowson of his duties.

TRURO in 15th have impressed following their promotion. Not many will have expected them to gain 34 points at the half way point, especially having to play in a different county, on a poor pitch shared with Plymouth Parkway so they will cruise to lower-mid-table obscurity and look forward to conference south games next season back in Cornwall in their brand new stadium.

In 14th we find FARNBOROUGH and although they’ve not set the world alight this season their flames will keep burning well enough to keep them clear I am sure.

Next we have SLOUGH on the same points but they seem more than capable of grinding out enough wins here and there (hopefully not on Saturday!) and it would take a complete meltdown for anyone above them to be in trouble at the end of April now.

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MY FINAL PREDICTED BOTTOM 9…
In case you haven’t worked it out by now…here it is on 12th January…how close will I be?!

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CONCLUSION: If I am right the interest will come from the EASTBOURNE & HAVANT surges – can one or both pull off their own “great escapes”? Will WELLING and/or DOVER surprise everyone? Will TAUNTON pull themselves together with loan signings (two young guns from Bristol City have just arrived for example). Finally…my vested interest…will WEYMOUTH stay steady…if not which way will they go?!…