Hello again…
…It’s been a while hasn’t it…
…almost two years in fact since my last post…
So why the wait?…Well I guess I was waiting for “the right time”…”a better time”…and it finally feels like we are there again…for now at least!
THAT WAS THEN!
When I last posted we were half way through our most recent conference south season and “at a crossroads” as I put it.
At that time…that now feels like many moons ago…I posed the following question – “Would we survive another relegation battle to stay at step 2 of the non-league pyramid or sink back down to step 3?
Well everyone knows the answer now as, metaphorically speaking, we wrenched that signpost out of the ground, converted it into a makeshift set of skis and poles and did the footballing equivalent of careering down Golden Cap at breakneck speed.
Yes the appointment of Jamie Wells appeared to slow our decent – we reached for a proverbial cliffside tussock of grass at step 3 in the Southern league Premier – but, just when we thought that tenuous grip might prove to be our salvation, the fragile foundations of the loamy soil gave way and we plummeted to our final nadir – Southern league division 1 – step 4 in non league and arguably our lowest level of football for over 100 years.
A NEW LOW!!!
I know what you are thinking…You are thinking…How many times in the last 20 months I have thought… “Surely THIS is our lowest ebb – we will begin to rise again link a phoenix from this latest debacle“!!!
Well dear reader…more times than I would care to admit.
As disappointing result followed disappointing result, my thought processes became increasingly tired and laboured – soon I was thinking less about a glorious firebird soaring back into a blue sky from the flames of its apparent demise. No, my musings were more akin to an aged chicken being mauled by a fox that somehow, breathlessly, managed to eventually barrel upwards to the short-lived safety of a nearby branch for a breather.
Ok so let’s do it…when was “the lowest point“? Most will probably say 25th April 2026, the day when a meek performance at Berkhamsted sealed our Step 4 fate with a 0-2 loss. Yes, practically that is right but…after a “very good run for a relegation threatened side” we so almost stayed up on that final day so can that really be our lowest point?
Our current gaffer Jamie Wells(pictured below) oversaw 19 league games in the second half of last season with a W9 D2 L8 ratio. A run that included no less than 5 clean sheets and three wins by a 4 goal margin – almost playoff form rather than relegation fodder!
His record compared to W3 D5 L10 for club legend Steve Claridge’s stint in charge before him. Now…there are many factors to securing results in football…technical, tactical, psychological…a whole array of outside influences…so who is to say what factors combined to start to turn this titanic around but…whatever it was…it was too little too late.
Personally I am torn between two lowest points in this latest 3-4 year slide in the roller-coaster ride it is being a Terras fan. Most obviously for me is the result that cost Claridge his job – the home loss to fellow strugglers Plymouth Parkway on 20th December 2005, the end of a run of three losses and just 1 point out of a possible 18 that left us languishing second bottom of the division.
My second choice for our nadir is ironically Claridge’s first game in charge. He cannot be held totally responsible for this of course, with so little time to effect change for the better…but he did lead out the troops for that abject performance on the BBC. That infamous day when the Red button cameras recorded the Terras bowing out of the FA cup at the first hurdle to Tadley Cavella, a team two steps below.
A NEW DAWN!!!
Anyway…that was then and this is now! The utter despondency (and frankly embarrassment) of the realisation we would be at step 4 of the non-league pyramid slowly ebbed over the summer as thoughts turned to rebuilding.
A fresh start, a fresh challenge but with many faces staying. Jamie Wells would remain in charge and no less than a dozen of last year’s squad eventually put pen to paper.
We had a manager who proved he could get results with this squad and with some key additions (most notably step 4 goalscorer extraordinaire Toby Holmes) we were earmarked as one of the favourites to secure automatic promotion back up to step 3.
However, tables don’t lie and we were rightly at step 4 for this season… as are all the other 21 clubs. Therefore I was sure we would let our football do the talking and not make and grandiose comments about our chances…a notion that was soon blown out of the water when our chairman compared our stadium to some sort of provincial Wembley stadium in the eyes of the visiting teams (from 11mins 30sec in link…insert facepalm emoji….).
AS YAZZ AND THE PLASTIC POPULATION FAMOUSLY SANG – THE ONLY WAY IS UP!!!
The stated goal was promotion – easier said than done of course but how would we start? This would probably be key to our ultimate hopes.
One good indicator is the excellent www.nonkeagueranking.com website that uses an ELO type formula (like the FIFA rankings) against non-league teams to give predictions on match outcomes.
Their guesses for the first 5 games of the season (Four league games and home to Melksham in the FA Trophy) gave the following percentages for each possible outcome. If we do a simple bit of maths we can see that the “expected” number of points from those 4 league games would be 7.5. Therefore obviously with 12 points in the bag we have overachieved according to the model by a healthy 4.5 points.
Not an exact science by any means and it can only base the probabilities on games played and not transfer activity over the summer, injuries etc. etc. However it could be a useful tool again going forward this season.
SHINY NEW TACTICS?!
What has changed?
Why the perfect start in the league (and the cup for that matter?)
Easier opposition?
Obviously 4 league games is a tiny sample size but the average quality of the teams in this division is lower – it simply has to be for a pyramid system to function effectively. (However I am painfully aware that hasn’t helped us bounce back after the previous two relegations!)
The crucial difference this time could be though we are used to winning games this calendar year under Wells.
In fact after 28 games the gaffer is currently in a stratospheric position in the all-time managers list(below). But of course everyone is ultimately judged at the end of their tenures…not at the start)…
Best win% – all WFC Men’s managers
1 – Billy Kingdon – 77.5%, 40gms, 1947-48
2 – JAMIE WELLS – 64.3%, 28gms, 2025-??
3 – Garry Hill – 62.9%, 89gms, 2005-07In fact
STOP DITHERING! WHAT HAS ACTUALLY CHANGED THIS SEASON?
Ok…In my view there are are 3 key aspects that have changed over the summer and it will be fascinating to see if these trends continue –
1. Improved players
Brooklyn Genesini has to be the first name on people’s list in this category – in 16 games for Wells last season his goal involvements totalled 1 solitary assist – for the meaningless 5th goal v Chertsey in the last home game of the season. In this campaign to date he has scored 6, assisted 3(2 from set pieces) and made 2 pre-assists. Whether this is due to new found confidence against lesser opposition, a more forward role or both we can only guess.
Almost as impressive has been Tor Swann taking flight this season – although his renaissance did start at the back end of 2015/26 with 4 assists and 2 pre-assists in the spring. So far in 2026/27 he is soaring even higher with 3 goals already, the same number of assists and a pre-assist – capped with a remarkable box-to-box run to provide for the first goal v Bath last weekend with a simple tap in to cap the cup upset.
2 . New players
All newbies have played a part but expectation has especially been no burden for lethal marksman at this level Toby Holmes, who raced to 8 goals in his first 5 appearances for the club. Such was his blistering start, the fact he hasn’t rustled the onion bag in the last 2 games now feels like a horrific drought! (Also – we need to bear in mind that the record for the fastest to 10 WFC goals from debut over the last 30+ years is 15 games by Goodship – he could still easily blow that out of the water.)
3. Style of play
We have obviously been a very attacking team so far this campaign. In league games we average 3 goals scored per game, very nearly double that under Wells in 2025/26. (Interestingly goals against has not changed significantly – currently down just slightly from 1.3 to 1.)
However it is the way we are attacking now that is most interesting to me and for this I will look at the 7 league and cup games to date…
25 goals scored in all but what I have found fascinating is the high proportion of headed goals. 7/25 have been scored by the bonce – 28% of the total. Under Wells last season it was just 4/30 in league & major cup or 13%.
Surely an indicator of increased/quicker wing play and faster breaks? Will this trend continue through the season?
One thing is for sure – when we score with headers under Jamie Wells we have always won the game. 8 wins out of 8 in league & major cup over two seasons. A statistical quirk or using our heads to succeed? Time will tell.
ARE WE GOING TO GET PROMOTED?!
I have learned to give up predicting after the last few seasons.
My fingers were especially burned last spring when at different points the odds seemed in our favour only for the dice to end on snake eyes.
What I will do though is to come back later this season once we have played some more games and see where we might be headed (pun intended) and why.
The only other thing I will say for now is that I am not as confident as the fan who posted the following after the singing of Sam Jackson from Poole.
Let’s face it – with 38 games to go a W42 D0 L0 record would be statistically unlikely – even if we give a generous 70% chance of winning each of our remaining games the computer spits out a probability of roughly 1 in 770,000. Worth a few pence or not? I am sure the bookies on Abbotsbury Road always used to entertain such wagers…
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